ZenTrader Market Brief: Relief Rally Holds as Intel, Nvidia, and Oil Drive Volatility

Pre-Market

Markets are extending a short-term relief move following softer tariff rhetoric, but price action remains headline-driven rather than conviction-driven. Index structure continues to compress within a defined range as traders balance improving macro data against persistent geopolitical and corporate risks.

Participation remains responsive, not impulsive.

News to Know

The “TACO Trade” Persists

Equities pushed higher for a second straight session after President Trump softened European Union tariff threats during remarks at Davos. U.S. and European markets responded with relief bids, reinforcing the view that aggressive trade rhetoric may continue to de-escalate under pressure.

Despite the bounce, uncertainty remains elevated. Trump’s renewed references to a proposed “Golden Dome” missile defense initiative tied to Greenland—comments denied by Greenland’s leadership—alongside criticism from Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy regarding Europe’s defense posture, highlight ongoing geopolitical fragility beneath the surface.

Intel: A Beat That Broke the Tape

Intel reported a Q4 earnings beat but sold off sharply after issuing weak Q1 guidance. Revenue expectations fell short, with management citing supply constraints and sub-optimal chip yields.

The reaction reinforces a familiar dynamic: forward guidance carries more weight than backward-looking results. Execution confidence remains the gating factor.

Nvidia’s China Exposure Returns to Focus

Nvidia is again under scrutiny as export restrictions continue to pressure what was roughly 20% of data-center revenue tied to China. Reports suggest limited approvals for advanced chips, prompting CEO Jensen Huang to travel to China to support longer-term positioning.

At this stage, the issue represents a structural overhang rather than an immediate breakdown catalyst.

Trump vs. JPMorgan

JPMorgan Chase faces a $5 billion lawsuit from President Trump alleging politically motivated account closures following January 2021. JPMorgan maintains actions were driven by regulatory risk management.

With an executive order already directing regulators to investigate alleged “unlawful debanking,” this remains a potential financial-sector headline risk rather than a resolved issue.

Middle East Tensions Lift Oil

Crude moved higher after Trump confirmed a U.S. naval deployment amid escalating tensions involving Iran. Despite the move, Saudi Aramco leadership and ratings agencies continue to describe global supply as adequate, limiting follow-through for now.

This remains a headline-sensitive environment rather than a confirmed trend shift.

Quick Hits

• The EU is pursuing expanded trade relations with India following last year’s tariff escalation.

• Japan approaches a February snap election as food inflation becomes a political pressure point.

• U.S. inflation remains sticky but stable, still above the Fed’s long-term target.

Bottom line: Relief trades are working, but conviction remains thin. Flexibility remains essential.

Market Analysis

Price remains contained within a clearly defined trading range.

The prior uptrend has technically broken, but repeated reclaiming of key moving averages suggests responsive buyers rather than trend acceleration. Macro data continues to offer support, while headline churn caps directional follow-through.

Assessment

• Trend: Neutral to bullish

• Structure: Range

• Bias: Patience over prediction

Economic Reports — Friday

• S&P Global Services PMI (Jan)

• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

• Michigan Inflation Expectations (Jan)

• Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan)

Scheduled Earnings

• Before Open: BAH, WBS, SLB

• After Close: None

SLB Earnings Preview

SLB reports Q4 results Friday, with attention extending beyond headline EPS.

Consensus expectations sit near $0.74 EPS on $9.55B in revenue. Focus remains on margin durability, international demand, and longer-duration optionality tied to geopolitical developments.

Venezuela: Optionality, Not Certainty

Recent U.S. involvement has renewed discussion around Venezuela’s long-term production potential. While reserves are significant, timelines, capital requirements, and political clarity remain uncertain.

This remains a long-duration optionality discussion, not a near-term cash-flow assumption.

Digital Operations

SLB’s digital segment continues to stand out, supported by strong margins and expanding AI-driven offerings. Digital revenue growth remains one of the more structurally attractive components of the broader thesis.

Sector Rotation

Basic Materials

Specialty chemicals lead, with select metals consolidating constructively.

Energy

Bullish order flow continues. Preference remains with names consolidating above support rather than extended moves.

Gold

Selective strength persists, though optimal entries remain limited.

Industry Groups

Relative Strength

• Semiconductors

• Semiconductor Equipment

• Healthcare Plans

• Aerospace & Defense

Relative Weakness

• Software Applications

• Software Infrastructure

• Resorts & Casinos

Day Trading Pro

Daily Watchlist

AMD, GOOGL, AMZN, COIN, JPM, TSLA, CVX, XOM, AAPL, BA, CAT, GE, NVDA, WMT, MU, ROKU, PLTR

Stock in Focus

Western Digital

Mindset Reminder

Shorting strong stocks after isolated bearish sessions tends to be a losing long-term behavior. Recaptures of VWAP and key intraday levels continue to offer higher-probability opportunities when aligned with dominant order flow.

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