Nasdaq Rejects Supply as Key Levels Decide Direction

We’re entering today with elevated caution after yesterday’s failed breakout attempts across the major indices.

Nasdaq briefly pushed above a long-term wedge, tapped a major supply area, and failed back underneath. That type of failed breakout (often showing as a sharp push-and-reject candle) shifts the short-term risk profile and generally calls for patience.

Today’s focus is reaction, not prediction.

Macro & Data Watch

• Initial Jobless Claims – 8:30am ET

  • First catalyst of the session

  • A constructive response would require reclaiming and holding failed levels after the release

  • Mixed/soft reactions can keep supply in control and increase rejection risk near resistance

No other major releases today.

Index Structure & Key Levels

Nasdaq Futures (NQ)

Bias: Cautious / supply-aware

Key Supply Zone

• 25,803 – 25,850

Yesterday’s push into this zone failed, and price is now back below:

• Prior 4H highs

• Long-term wedge resistance

What matters today

• Constructive scenario: Reclaim and hold above 25,850

  • Ideally driven by follow-through, not just a wick

• Rejection scenario: Continued inability to hold above 25,803

  • Can reopen rotation toward lower demand

Downside demand

• 25,716 – 25,661 (Daily 50 SMA)

  • Prior highs/lows overlap

  • A reasonable area to watch for stabilization if selling persists

Execution note

Inside 25,850 – 25,660 often behaves as chop. Cleaner opportunity typically shows outside this range, after acceptance is clear.

S&P 500 Futures (ES)

Bias: Binary near resistance

Price has broken the prior uptrend and is trading beneath a dense rejection area.

Critical zone

• 6963 – 6957

  • Multiple prior highs

  • Rejection-heavy region

Scenarios

• Reclaim & hold

  • Improves structure

  • Can reopen a path toward 7000 (only if acceptance holds)

• Failure / bear-flag behavior

  • Puts 6932 in play, then 6913 gap

Additional level

• 6950

  • Previously absorbed heavy flow

  • Potential near-term support area, but still requires confirmation

Dow Jones (YM / DIA)

Bias: Vulnerable below key reference

Key level

• 49,100

Price is currently struggling below this level.

If rejection persists below 49,100

• Downside rotation can open toward:

  • 48,835

Below 49,100, structure appears thinner. If downside continuation develops, the focus is location + confirmation, not momentum chasing.

ETF & Sector Check

• SMH

  • Needs to hold 381.50 – 383

  • Holding supports broader stability in tech

  • Failure can add pressure to Nasdaq leadership

• IWM

  • Pulling back into 253 – 250

  • Prefer observing this area over chasing highs

  • Watching for constructive flag behavior if buyers defend

Equities in Focus

Relative Strength (if indices stabilize)

• AMZN

  • Holding 239–240

  • Structure remains constructive while this base holds

• GOOGL

  • Reclaimed off 314

  • Needs to hold 322–324

  • If strength persists, 332–334 becomes the next area to monitor (conditional on market support)

Relative Weakness (if indices reject supply)

• TSLA

  • Rejected prior lows

  • Risk can pull back toward 414–415 if weakness persists

  • Prefer waiting for a clear pop-and-fade setup rather than reacting early

• NFLX

  • Weak structure under 923

  • Weakness remains the primary read while below that level

• NVDA

  • Still range-controlled

  • No clean continuation edge at the moment

  • Avoid forcing trades in the middle of range structure

Crypto Proxy Note

• IBIT

  • Failed breakout and retest

  • If retests continue to show weak response, that’s a reminder that waiting protects capital

  • Treat it as a process example: confirmation first, opinion second

What Matters Most Today

• Failed breakouts tend to demand discipline

• Supply reactions > opinions

• Cleaner opportunity typically shows after confirmation, not anticipation

• The session likely stays centered on reclaim vs rejection at the listed levels

👉 Want to follow today’s key market levels live? Join the ZenTrader YouTube stream for $10.

Join ZenTrader

ZenTrader shares daily market context and structured watchlists focused on price, structure, and risk. The goal is preparation, not prediction.